The real estate market in 2024 is viewed through a lens that most mainstream analyses overlook: the local liquidity of a property, meaning its ability to be resold within a reasonable timeframe and without forced depreciation. Buyers focused solely on the price per square meter miss a major risk, which is holding an asset stuck in a segment with no demand.
The trends in the real estate market in 2024 require cross-referencing three variables before making any purchasing decision: the face price, energy performance, and the depth of the local secondary market.
Further reading : The best strategies for succeeding in your real estate investments in 2024
Local liquidity and resale: the absent criterion in common analysis grids
A property listed below the median price of its area attracts attention. However, a low price often reflects a stagnant local demand, a fragile job pool, or a saturated rental market. We recommend systematically checking the volume of transactions carried out in the municipality or target neighborhood over the past two years.
If this volume drops while the available supply increases, the signal is clear: the local market is struggling to absorb listings. Buying in this context means accepting an extended resale timeframe and almost certain downward negotiation upon exit.
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Professionals working on the ground, particularly those referenced for more information on the Juste Immo site, confirm that a fine reading of the local fabric now takes precedence over national averages.
Three operational indicators allow for evaluating this liquidity before signing:
- The average selling time noted by notaries in the municipality, compared to the departmental average. A gap of more than a few weeks indicates a less fluid market.
- The ratio between the number of properties listed on portals and the number of actual sales during the same period. A stock that swells without proportional transactions indicates a blockage.
- The diversity of buyer profiles (first-time buyers, rental investors, second homes). A market dependent on a single category of buyers is more fragile in the event of a downturn.
Energy performance of housing: a structural selection filter
The energy performance diagnosis (DPE) is no longer just an administrative document. In 2024, the energy class of a property directly conditions its selling price and its ability to find a buyer. The notaries’ portal confirms that energy-guzzling older homes remain prevalent in sales, but their prices are dropping compared to energy-efficient properties.
This differentiation is structural, not cyclical. Gradual restrictions on renting out energy-inefficient homes reduce the pool of rental investors likely to purchase. A property rated F or G thus loses two markets at once: that of occupants sensitive to energy bills and that of landlords constrained by regulations.
Balancing purchase discount and energy renovation costs
Buying an energy-inefficient home at a discount to renovate it remains a viable strategy, provided the renovation costs are accurately estimated before signing. An underestimated renovation budget turns a good deal into a loss-making asset.
We observe that buyers who successfully navigate this balance have a complete energy audit conducted (not just the regulatory DPE) and obtain several detailed quotes before making an offer. The potential gain upon resale after renovation depends on the local market: in a high-demand area, the energy class upgrade can be monetized. In a low-liquidity sector, the capital gain remains theoretical.
Mortgage rates and borrowing capacity: what the 2024 market changes concretely
Interest rates have risen significantly since their low point. Their level in 2024 mechanically reduces households’ borrowing capacity, which exerts downward pressure on prices in most segments.
The drop in prices does not always offset the rise in borrowing costs. A buyer borrowing at a rate significantly higher than that of 2021 pays more over the total duration of the loan, even if the face purchase price has decreased. This calculation in total cost (price + interest + borrower insurance + notary fees) remains the only relevant one.
Real estate purchasing strategies adapted to the high-rate context
Three approaches emerge for active buyers in 2024:
- Negotiate the purchase price based on recent local transaction data, not on listed prices. The gap between listed price and signed price has widened in most French markets.
- Favor a higher personal contribution to reduce the borrowed amount and total cost. An additional savings effort of a few months can significantly alter the financing plan.
- Incorporate the cost of a potential rate renegotiation into the financial setup if market conditions improve in the medium term, checking the early repayment clauses of the loan contract.
Geographical repositioning: when changing sectors is better than seeking a discount
JLL highlights a movement of geographical refocusing and a rise in qualitative standards in professional real estate strategies. This movement also concerns individuals. Rather than seeking the lowest price in a familiar area, it may be more profitable to reposition towards a zone where demand remains strong and the real estate stock is better maintained.
A “cheaper” market is not an “accessible” market if the properties there accumulate energy obsolescence, low rental attractiveness, and a contracting job pool. We recommend comparing not the prices per square meter between municipalities, but the ratios of median prices to local household incomes. This ratio indicates the real tension in the market and the likelihood that a solvent buyer will emerge at resale.
The real estate market in 2024 rewards selectivity. A successful purchase relies on the convergence of a coherent price, correct energy performance, and an active local pool. Missing one of these three criteria risks holding a property whose value only materializes on paper.